Background: The incidence of traffic accidents in Iran is significantly higher than the global average (more than 17000 deaths a year, mostly young adults). The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors of high-risk drivers based on their observable driving behaviors, police records, and car condition in Fars province (Iran). Methods: In this case-control study, an interviewer interviewed a random sample (about 1 in 5 of the drivers) of all drivers who were referred to Shiraz traffic accident court from March 21, 2021, to June 21, 2021, due to being involved in a traffic accident. Based on the police report, we interviewed at-fault drivers who caused injurious or fatal traffic accidents as the case group (200 at-fault drivers) and those not-at-fault drivers as the control group (200 not-at-fault drivers). No matching was done. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire filled out through face-to-face interviews with the drivers. Using univariate and multivariate logistic regression, the statistical analyses were conducted in R 4.0.2 software. Results: In this study, a total of 400 drivers were interviewed, of whom 367 (91.8%) were male. The mean ages of the case and control groups were 32.35 years (SD=9.84) and 31.75 (SD=10.33) years, respectively (P>0.05). In addition, 102 (51.0%) and 95 (47.5%) drivers were married in the case and control groups, respectively. Based on the results of a multiple logistic regression model, statistically significant associations were observed between the risk of being the at-fault driver in an injurious or fatal traffic accident and receiving a traffic ticket due to speedingovertaking (ORspeeding overtaking/no ticket=3.38, 95%CI: 1.75, 6.49, P<0.001), self-reported high-speed driving (ORyes/no=2.41, 95%CI: 1.25, 4.63, P=0.008), and having a history of car accident within the recent two years (ORyes/no=1.87, 95%CI: 1.11, 3.14, P=0.017). Conclusion: Our study suggested that among several potential factors, recently receiving traffic tickets due to speeding or overtaking, self-reported speed driving, and recent car accidents may effectively be used to screen out high-risk drivers who will probably cause injurious or fatal car accidents in the future. Intervention measures for the defined high-risk drivers including closer supervision and training programs may reduce the risk of fatal accidents in Iran. |
- Abegaz T, Gebremedhin S. Magnitude of road traffic accident related injuries and fatalities in Ethiopia. PloS one. 2019;14(1). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202240. PMID: 30695028. PMCID: PMC6350968.
- Akter T, Pervaz S, editors. Assessing motorcycle accident and injury characteristics in Dhaka Metropolitan City. First International Conference on Urban and Regional Planning (ICURP) Dhaka, Bangladesh. 2019.
- Road traffic injuries. 2021.
- González MPS, Sotos FE, Ponce ÁT. Impact of provincial characteristics on the number of traffic accident victims on interurban roads in Spain. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2018;118:178-189. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.02.015. PMID: 29477460.
- Petridou E, Moustaki M. Human factors in the causation of road traffic crashes. European journal of epidemiology. Eur J Epidemiol. 2000;16(9):819-26. doi: 10.1023/a:1007649804201. PMID: 11297224.
- Authority CA. Global Fatal Accident Review 1980-96. Civil Aviation Authority London; 1998.
- de Winter JC, Dodou D. The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis. Journal of safety research. J Safety Res. 2010;41(6):463-70. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2010.10.007. PMID: 21134510.
- Bucsuházy K, Matuchová E, Zůvala R, Moravcová P, Kostíková M, Mikulec R. Human factors contributing to the road traffic accident occurrence. Transportation research procedia. 2020;45:555-61. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2020.03.057.
- Zhang G, Yau KK, Chen G. Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2013;59:18-25. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.05.004. PMID: 23743298.
- Adanu EK, Jones S. Effects of human-centered factors on crash injury severities. Journal of advanced transportation. 2017;2017.
- Plankermann K. Human factors as causes for road traffic accidents in the Sultanate of Oman under consideration of road construction designs 2014.
- Koppel S, Bohensky M, Langford J, Taranto D. Older drivers, crashes and injuries. Traffic injury prevention. Traffic Inj Prev. 2011;12(5):459-67. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.580802. PMID: 21972856.
- LMO ILMO. accidents. 2021.
- Yadollahi M, Gholamzadeh S. Five-year forecasting deaths caused by traffic accidents in Fars province of Iran. Bulletin of Emergency & Trauma. Bull Emerg Trauma. 2019;7(4):373-380. doi: 10.29252/beat-070406. PMID: 31858000; PMCID: PMC6911725.
- Das S, Sun X, Wang F, Leboeuf C. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers. Journalof traffic and transportation engineering (English edition). 2015;2(3):145-57. doi: 10.1016/j.jtte.2015.03.003.
- Mandrekar JN. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in Diagnostic Test Assessment. Journal of Thoracic Oncology. J Thorac Oncol. 2010;5(9):1315-6. doi: 10.1097/JTO.0b013e3181ec173d. PMID: 20736804.
- Rhodes N, Pivik K. Age and gender differences in risky driving: The roles of positive affect and risk perception. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2011;43(3):923-31. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.11.015. PMID: 21376884.
- Oviedo-Trespalacios O, Scott-Parker B. The sex disparity in risky driving: A survey of Colombian young drivers. Traffic injury prevention. Traffic Inj Prev. 2018;19(1):9-17. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2017.1333606. PMID: 28548584.
- Hanrahan RB, Layde PM, Zhu S, Guse CE, Hargarten SW. The association of driver age with traffic injury severity in Wisconsin. Traffic injury prevention. Traffic Inj Prev. 2009;10(4):361-7. doi: 10.1080/15389580902973635. PMID: 19593714. PMCID: PMC4890477.
- Mullin B, Jackson R, Langley J, Norton R. Increasing age and experience: are both protective against motorcycle injury? A case-control study. Injury Prevention. Inj Prev. 2000;6(1):32-5. doi: 10.1136/ip.6.1.32. PMID: 10728539. PMCID: PMC1730576.
- Issa Y. Effect of driver's personal characteristics on traffic accidents in Tabuk city in Saudi Arabia. Journal of transport literature. 2016;10:25-9. doi: 10.1590/2238-1031.jtl.v10n3a5.
- Jørgenrud B, Bogstrand ST, Furuhaugen H, Jamt RE, Vindenes V, Gjerde H. Association between speeding and use of alcohol and medicinal and illegal drugs and involvement in road traffic crashes among motor vehicle drivers. Traffic injury prevention. Traffic Inj Prev. 2018;19(8):779-785. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2018.1518577. PMID: 30681887.
- Sornpaisarn B, Sornpaisarn S, Shield KD, Rehm J. Alcohol use and injury risk in Thailand: A case‐crossover emergency department study. Drug and alcohol review. Drug Alcohol Rev. 2020 Jul;39(5):539-545. doi: 10.1111/dar.13094. PMID: 32515099.
- Mekonnen TH, Tesfaye YA, Moges HG, Gebremedin RB. Factors associated with risky driving behaviors for road traffic crashes among professional car drivers in Bahirdar city, northwest Ethiopia, 2016: a cross-sectional study. Environmental health and preventive medicine. Environ Health Prev Med. 2019;24(1):17. doi: 10.1186/s12199-019-0772-1. PMID: 30851730. PMCID: PMC6408773.
- Al-Thaifani AA, Al-Rabeei NA, Dallak AM. Study of the injured persons and the injury pattern in road traffic accident in Sana’a city, Yemen. Advances in Public Health. Article ID 4138163. doi: 10.1155/2016/4138163.
- Bakhtiyari M, Mehmandar MR, Khezeli M, Latifi A, Jouybari TA, Mansournia MA. Estimating the avoidable burden and population attributable fraction of human risk factors of road traffic injuries in iran: application of penalization, bias reduction and sparse data analysis. International journal of injury control and safety promotion. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2019;26(4):405-11. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2019.1660374. PMID: 31514568.
- Zhang X, Hongyan Y, Guoqing H, Mengjing C, Yue G, Xiang H. Basic characteristics of road traffic deaths in China. Iranian journal of public health. Iran J Public Health. 2013;42(1):7-15. PMID: 23515114; PMCID: PMC3595633.
- Zhang G, Yau KKW, Gong X. Traffic violations in Guangdong Province of China: Speeding and drunk driving. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2014;64:30-40. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.11.002. PMID: 24316505.
- Hadaye RS, Rathod S, Shastri S. A cross-sectional study of epidemiological factors related to road traffic accidents in a metropolitan city. Journal of family medicine and primary care. J Family Med Prim Care. 2020;9(1):168-72. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_904_19. PMID: 32110585. PMCID: PMC7014833.
- Elliott MR, Waller PF, Raghunathan TE, Shope JT, Little RJ. Persistence of violation and crash behavior over time. Journal of Safety Research. 2000;31(4):229-42. doi: 10.1016/S0022-4375(00)00042-6.
- Blows S, Ameratunga S, Ivers RQ, Lo SK, Norton R. Risky driving habits and motor vehicle driver injury. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2005;37(4):619-24. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.003. PMID: 15949452.
- Factor R. The effect of traffic tickets on road traffic crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Accid Anal Prev. 2014;64:86-91. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.11.010. PMID: 24342150.
- Luca DL. Do traffic tickets reduce motor vehicle accidents? Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. 2015;34(1):85-106. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1939586.
- Mercan MA. The Relationship between Crash Severity and Speeding Tickets: Lessons from a Nation-wide Survey. Journal of Finance and Economics. 2021;9(3):147-51. doi:10.12691/jfe-9-3-5.
- Perneger T, Smith GS. The driver's role in fatal two-car crashes: a paired “case-control” study. American journal of epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol. 1991;134(10):1138-45. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116017. PMID: 1746524.
- Fararouei M, Sedaghat Z, Sadat SJ, Shahraki G. Risk factors for being the at-fault driver: A case–control study. Traffic injury prevention. Traffic Inj Prev. 2017;18(3):262-6. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2016.1244604. PMID: 27715286.
- Chumpawadee U, Homchampa P, Thongkrajai P, Suwanimitr A, Chadbunchachai W. Factors related to motorcycle accident risk behavior among university students in northeastern Thailand. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2015;46(4):805-21. PMID: 26867401.
- Iversen H, Rundmo T. Personality, risky driving and accident involvement among Norwegian drivers. Personality and Individual Differences. 2002;33(8):1251-63. doi: 10.1016/S0191-8869(02)00010-7.
- Ngueutsa R, Kouabenan DR. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour. Ergonomics. Ergonomics. 2017;60(9):1273-82. doi: 10.1080/00140139.2016.1259508. PMID: 27827567.
- Weinstein ND. Effects of personal experience on self-protective behavior. Psychological bulletin. Psychol Bull. 1989;105(1):31-50. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.105.1.31. PMID: 2648439.
|