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Scenario Development and Analysis for Epidemic Crisis Management in Iran 2031: A Driving Factors Approach | ||
| Health Management & Information Science | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 27 مرداد 1404 | ||
| نوع مقاله: Original Article | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30476/jhmi.2025.104458.1244 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| maziyar karamali* 1؛ taha nasiri2؛ parisa mehdizadeh3؛ javad shahmohamadi4؛ mohammadkarim bahadori5 | ||
| 1Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Department of Health Services Management, Faculty of Health, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Assistant professor in health economic, health management research center, Baqiyatullah University university of medical sciences, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4PHD of management of healthcare services, health management research center baqiyatallah university of medical science,Tehran,Iran | ||
| 5professor of health services management, health management research center, tehran, iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In general, the main challenge of the epidemic is its long duration and unpredictable end. knowing and investigating the most effective factors in epidemic crisis management can be a beneficial step important issue in any country. Future research is an approach that includes not only understanding possible futures, but also preparing to make decisions for the future. The aim of this article is to develop and analyze a scenario for pandemic crisis management in Iran 2031. In this research, the 22 factors mentioned and through the analysis of mutual effects in the MICMAC software, the effective factors on crisis management were ranked. After determining the most effective factors, the researchers entered them in the wizard software and created the scenario. In the analysis of the mutual effects of the factors, seven factors were determined as the key ones in crisis management. After entering them into the Wizard scenario software, 572,321 scenarios were extracted. Five scenarios were selected as the most likely ones for the final analysis. Managerial time horizon, decision-making quality, financial stability, and crisis management skills emerged as pivotal variables. The findings highlight the necessity of long-term strategic planning, resource allocation, and leadership training to enhance epidemic preparedness. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Crisis management؛ Scenario planning؛ Epidemics؛ Driving factors | ||
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